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Post by Admin on Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:12 pm

2012 US Presidential Election

Barack Obama (American Labor-Illinois)/Jay Rockefeller (American Labor-West Virginia) 52% of the PV and 323EV
Mitt Romney (Conservative-Utah)/Kevin McCarthy (Conservative-California) 47% of the PV and 215 EV

Incumbent President Barack Obama had defeated Conservative Mitt Romney by a solid five points. Obamas "rainbow coalition" was able to triumph once again. Well still a Left-of-Center President, Obamas positions on economic issues focused more on reform rather then nationalization as previous Socialist ALP Presidents had (though the consensus had changed since the Schafley era).

2016 Election Presidential Election

The economy is doing well, Obama is fairly popular, but his busing policy and affordable housing plan has caused massive anger among many working and middle-class White voters. In the 2016 ALP primaries, Senator Clinton defeated hard-line Anti-war Old Labor Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, though the election was much closer then expected and Sanders drew large support from the youth. On the Conservative side, insurgent candidate Donald Trump defeated several rivals such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Michael Bloomberg. Trump defeated the Right-Wing and Centrist wings of his party running hard against the busing policy, affordable housing, welfare, drugs, taking a strong anti-immigration stance, and taking a staunch law and order stance. Trump ran to the right economically, but was noted for his anti-war stance (something he was actually to Clintons left on), support for campaign finance, and moderate position on the environment. Trumps controversial comments regarding welfare recipents caused mass controversy with much anger against him among minorities (especially Blacks). Throughout the campaign, Clinton lead the bombastic Trump, but only slightly despite scandal after scandal (Clinton had massive corruption problems) going into election day the map looked like this. Clinton had a slight lead in several key swing states such as Illinois, California, New Mexico, Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky. She however fell behind Obamas numbers in states such as Arkansas, Montana, Texas (which and Louisiana. Traditional Labor states such as Montana seemed to be in play, as was the case with Nevada due to Trumps hard-line stance on federal land. However, several hard-line Conservative states such as Florida and Georgia seemed to be closer then usual. Clinton was expected to win, predictions ranging from a blow out to a slight win. Many believe she had ignored her parties Anti-War/Youth base in favor of attempting to win over Northern Moderate Tories turned off by Trumps radicalism.

6:00 PM:We can project that Donald Trump has won Indiana. We can project that Hillary Clinton has won the state of Vermont. No surprises here. We do have a surprise, Clinton seems to be running behind expected totals in Kentucky. We believe she will win the state based off strong returns in the states urban areas and hard-line socialist Eastern Kentucky, but Trump is doing unusually well in Cincinnatis suburbs. A racial backlash to Obamas busing? He is also holding up well in Western Kentucky, despite his support for privatizing the ANHS. A backlash against busing?
7:00pm:We can call Georgia for Trump, 50-44% for Trump, with Liberal Party candidate William Weild polling 3%. Clinton running up insanely big margins in Atlanta, however the rest of the state rural and suburban swung hard to Trump. Still, a Labor candidate coming within six here is unheard of in most elections in this extremely low unionized state. New Hampshire remains to close to call. Virginia we can call for Trump. Strong margins for Clinton out of Richmond, Western VA, and parts of NoVA. Not enough to balance out massive Trump swings in the Richmond suburbs, Trump breaks 60% in Henrico County and the rural non-unionized parts of the state just keep pooring in. Low turnout in Western Virginia, Trump will win this state by 11 points. South Carolina, called for Trump. Kentucky, we still cannot make a projection.

7:30 PM: North Carolina for Trump no surprise there. West Virginia for Clinton, no surprise one of Labors strongest states due to having a unionization rate of over 30% and the nationalized coal fields. Trump did quite well in the panhandle, flipping Jefferson county hard yellow. Ohio, this seems to be trouble for Clinton. She was expected to win this state by a much bigger margin. Cleveland has not come in yet, but Trump has a narrow lead from large swings outside the Columbus suburbs. However, Clinton is running up margins in Columbus, Cleveland, and Youngstown. We believe she will get the state, but it remains to close to call.

Too Close to Call 30EV

8:00PM:Still no call in Kentucky, Trump is running up margins in traditionally Conservative rural areas. City vote looks like it could hand this to Clinton. We have new calls. Delaware to close to call, Trump with a lead. Florida to close to call, that's a shocker. Illinois to close call, Trump way ahead, he's running over 10 points ahead of Romney in the Chicago suburbs. Chicago has not come in yet, so to close to call. Maine, we can project for Clinton, though by a much smaller margin then Obama. Maryland to close to call, this is a bad sign. Obama carried this state by 13 points, Baltimore has yet to come in but numbers out of the eastern shore do not look good for Clinton. Trump is running it up with 80% of the White vote in many of these counties. Baltimore Suburbs, many of the working-class areas that voted for Obama, Trump is now leading in. The DC Bedroom communities and Baltimore have yet to come in, both of which will favor Clinton. Massachusetts we can call for Clinton. Michigan for Clinton. Mississippi for Trump. Missouri, another swing state to close to call. New Jersey, to close to call. Trump running it up big in the rural and suburban parts of the state. Oklahoma, for Trump. Rhode Island for Clinton. Pennsylvania, we can project the state for Clinton. Texas for Trump. Tennessee to close to call. Alabama for Trump, massive backlash in both states despite a high Black vote for Clinton. it seems as Trump has broken 90% of the White vote in Mississippi, and turnout is high. We can project DC for Clinton, at 90% no surprise. We can now call Maryland for Clinton, by just seven points. Deleware remains to close to call.

8:30:we can call Florida for Trump. Big shocker in Arkansas, we can call it for Trump. Bad news for the Clinton camp. Trump has taken out a state President Obama won twice. We can call Kentucky finally for Clinton, Tennessee still to close to call, a state heavily targeted by Clinton.


9:00PM:We have several big calls. Kansas, as expected for Trump. Nebraska, for Trump. Minnesota for Clinton. New Mexico to close to call. Wisconsin for Clinton. Wyoming for Trump. Louisiana for Trump, bad signs for the Clinton camp. And...we can project Deleware for Trump. Bad news here for Clinton. New York for Clinton, and easily to. Ohio, Clinton pulls ahead but we cannot project a winner, but it seems to be headed Clintons way. Things look good for Trump in Illinois, he's running quite well Downstate, and ramping up margins in the Chicago suburbs that will be hard to beat. Chicago not out yet.

Too Close to call-82EV

Final MAP (will finish later)

Trump (Conservative)-332
Clinton (Labor)-206


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